MENA’s Real GDP and Inflation in 2024

The IMF has lowered the MENA growth forecast for 2024 to 2.9%, down from October 2023's projection of 3.4%. This reduction is influenced by the impacts of the Gaza/Israel conflict on tourism and trade, as well as oil production cuts. However, non-oil growth remains strong in the GCC countries. While there is a broad-based easing of inflation, some countries face persistently high levels due to specific issues, such as Egypt's dollar shortages and Lebanon's economic, political, and social challenges.

Oil-exporting nations continue to have current account surpluses, though these are lower than the record highs of 2022. The GCC is expected to see fiscal surpluses due to relatively high oil prices and ongoing reforms, whereas oil importers' fiscal deficits are projected to widen this year. Public sector gross financing needs are expected to rise to US $186 billion in 2024, up from US $156 billion in 2023.