Africa's Debt-to-GDP Accumulation: 2028 Forecast

Africa's debt-to-GDP ratio has experienced significant growth over the past decade as governments have increasingly borrowed to finance infrastructure projects and address urgent fiscal needs. The surge in debt accumulation has caused the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise from an average of 23.2% in 2008 to 57.1% by 2022 in Sub-Saharan Africa. Some countries, like Cabo Verde, Sudan, and Mozambique, have even surpassed the internationally recognized sustainable debt thresholds, raising the specter of debt distress.

According to the World Bank's Debt Sustainability Analysis, 8 African countries were already in debt distress by 2023, unable to meet their repayment obligations. An additional 15 were at high risk, while 14 faced moderate risks of falling into debt distress. These challenges are further compounded by Africa's relatively low revenue mobilization, with a tax-to-GDP ratio of only 15.6%.